Keeping an Eye On Venezuelan Elections

Risk of Deceptions in Venezuelan Referendum, CEPR Warns

Recent History Shows Use of Fake Polls, Other Efforts
to Undermine Credibility of Electoral Process

For Immediate Release: November 28, 2007
Center for Economic and Policy Research
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-293-5380 x104
http://www.cepr.net/content/view/1372/77/

WASHINGTON, D.C. - There is a significant risk that
fraudulent polls and other deceptions will be used to
challenge the results of Venezuela's referendum, if
proposed constitutional reforms are approved this
Sunday, according to Center for Economic and Policy
Research (CEPR) economist and Co-Director Mark
Weisbrot.

"The international media has not always exercised due
diligence in its reporting on polling data and
elections in Venezuela," said Weisbrot, who has
authored papers on previous elections there.

"This opens up the possibility for the use of fake
polling, as was done in the last (2004) referendum, to
cast doubt on the results if the proposed
constitutional reforms are approved," he said.

In 2004, the influential U.S. polling firm Penn,
Schoen, and Berland published fake exit polls on the
day of the Presidential recall referendum, showing
President Hugo Chávez losing by a 59-41 margin.(1) The
actual results, which were certified by observer
missions from the Organization of American States and
the Atlanta-based Carter Center, showed the opposite,
with Chávez winning by a margin of 58 to 41 percent.(2)

The fake exit polls were not the only dubious polls
that plagued the last referendum. Most of the pre-
election polls in 2004 showed the race "too close to
call." Although these were conducted by opposition
pollsters, most of the international media accepted
them in their reporting. As CEPR demonstrated at the
time, it is extremely unlikely that a properly
conducted poll could have shown a result that was "too
close to call."

The election's credibility was also attacked by a
widely-cited statistical paper(3) purporting to show
evidence of fraud. CEPR showed that this analysis was
deeply flawed and provided no such evidence; the Carter
Center later commissioned an independent panel of
statisticians from U.S. universities, which confirmed
CEPR's finding and concluded that there was no
statistical evidence of fraud.(4)

Nonetheless, the Wall Street Journal and some Latin
American media outlets used this paper and the fake
exit polls to claim that the referendum was actually
stolen through a clever electronic fraud.(5)

On this basis of such analysis and fake exit polls,
most of the opposition rejected the results of the 2004
referendum, and went on to boycott the 2005 national
elections.

In the 2006 Presidential election, Penn, Schoen and
Berland once again produced questionable polling data
showing the race to be in a " very close" just before
the election. Other pollsters, including Zogby
International, showed an 18-29 point spread favoring
Chávez.(6) According to the Miami Herald, this led to
the sudden departure of Doug Schoen – who was
responsible for the Venezuela polling – on the eve of
the election.(7) Chávez won the presidency by a margin
of 63 to 37 percent.

"The international media's reporting on the current
referendum so far is not encouraging," Weisbrot said.
He noted that on November 7th, "almost all of the U.S.
and international press reported that pro-Chávez gunmen
had fired on a crowd of peaceful protesters returning
from a demonstration against the reforms.(8) We now
know that this is not at all what happened."(9)

Weisbrot also noted that the media has given wide
coverage to a poll by Datanalisis this week showing a
defeat for the proposed reforms.(10) The firm's
longstanding ties to the opposition, and its serious
polling errors in the last referendum, were not
mentioned in the press.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an
independent, nonpartisan think tank that was
established to promote democratic debate on the most
important economic and social issues that affect
people's lives. CEPR's Advisory Board of Economists
includes Nobel Laureate economists Robert Solow and
Joseph Stiglitz; Richard Freeman, Professor of
Economics at Harvard University; and Eileen Appelbaum,
Professor and Director of the Center for Women and Work
at Rutgers University.

CEPR receives approximately 80% of its funding from
foundations, and receives additional funds from a
growing number of individual donors. We do not receive
any funding from governments (with the exception of a
small grant from Washington State in 2003). For more
information, click here.

##

Center for Economic and Policy Research, 1611
Connecticut Ave, NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20009
Phone: (202) 293-5380, Fax: (202) 588-1356, Home:
www.cepr.net

Footnotes 1 See Rosnick, David. “Polling and the
Ballot: The Venezuelan Referendum.” Center for Economic
and Policy Research. August 2004.

2 Former President Jimmy Carter noted after observing
the referendum that the opposition “deliberately
distributed this erroneous [Penn, Schoen, and Berland]
exit poll data in order to build up, not only the
expectation of victory, but also to influence the
people still standing in line.”

3 Hausmann, Ricardo; and Roberto Rigobón. “In Search of
the Black Swan: Analysis of the Statistical Evidence of
Electoral Fraud in Venezuela”. September 3, 2004.
Available here.

4 The Carter Center. “Observing the Venezuela
Presidential Recall Referendum: Comprehensive Report.”
February 2005. Available here.

5 See The Wall Street Journal. "Conned in Caracas."
September 9, 2004.

6 Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research. "Chávez
Reaches 60% in Venezuelan Election." November 28, 2006.

7 Gunson, Phil and Steven Dudley. “Sudden change at
U.S. polling firm startles Venezuelan opposition.” The
Miami Herald. December 3, 2006.

8 See e.g., The Associated Press. “Gunfire erupts after
Venezuelan students protest Chávez reforms; 8 injured.”
November 8, 2007; Bloomberg. “Venezuela Students Shot
After Anti-Chávez Protest.” November 7, 2007.

9 See the video (from opposition Globovision TV) and
the Wall Street Journal report, Lyons, John and José de
Córdoba, “To Oppose Chávez, Youth In Caracas Rally
Behind Stalin,” November 24, 2007, indicating that
shots were fired by people who came to rescue pro-
Chávez students trapped in a building that a crowed of
anti-Chávez students had surrounded and set fire to.
While all the details of the incident may never be
known, it is clear that media reports describing the
repression of peaceful demonstrators were inaccurate
and created a powerful false impression.

10 See Starchevich, Johann. “Venezuelan leader accuses
US of funding campaign to oust him.” Agence France
Presse. July 11, 2004. “A previous poll released in
June by Datanalisis showed Chávez losing 42.6 percent
57.4 percent.”

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